When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover?
نویسندگان
چکیده
[1] The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. We demonstrate a parametric model of ozone hole area that is based upon a new algorithm for estimating chlorine and bromine levels over Antarctica and late spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This model explains 95% of the ozone hole area’s variance. We then use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur around 2068 and the area will very slowly decline between 2001 and 2017. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until about 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on the ozone hole. Citation: Newman, P. A., E. R. Nash, S. R. Kawa, S. A. Montzka, and S. M. Schauffler (2006), When will the Antarctic ozone hole recover?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12814, doi:10.1029/2005GL025232.
منابع مشابه
Impact of biogenic very short-lived bromine on the Antarctic ozone hole during the 21st century
Active bromine released from the photochemical decomposition of biogenic very short-lived bromocarbons (VSLBr) enhances stratospheric ozone depletion. Based on a dual set of 1960–2100 coupled chemistry–climate simulations (i.e. with and without VSLBr), we show that the maximum Antarctic ozone hole depletion increases by up to 14 % when natural VSLBr are considered, which is in better agreement ...
متن کاملA transport model study of the breakup of the Antarctic ozone hole in November 2000
[1] A 3-D off-line transport model is used to examine the breakup of the Antarctic ozone hole in late November and early December 2000. The use of a transport model enables an analysis of the vortex breakup that is not possible from the use of ozonesonde observations alone. By initializing ozone mixing ratio on 1 September 2000, and using parameterized ozone production and loss rates, the evolu...
متن کاملSignatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change
1 Roughly 90% of atmospheric ozone is found in the lower stratosphere in the ozone layer. Since about the 1970s, anthropogenic emissions of ozone-depleting gases have led to depletion of ~3–4% of the total overhead ozone averaged over the globe1. The strongest depletion is found over Antarctica during spring, when photochemical processes combine with a unique set of meteorological conditions to...
متن کاملMeasuring the Antarctic ozone hole with the new Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS)
The new Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS), which launched on the Suomi National Polarorbiting Partnership satellite in October 2011, gives a detailed view of the development of the Antarctic ozone hole and extends the long series of satellite ozone measurements that go back to the early 1970s. OMPS includes two modules – nadir and limb – to measure profile and total ozone concentrations. ...
متن کاملChanges in the polar vortex: Effects on Antarctic total ozone observations at various stations
[1] October mean total column ozone data from four Antarctic stations form the basis for understanding the evolution of the ozone hole since 1960. While these stations show similar emergence of the ozone hole from 1960 to 1980, the records are divergent in the last two decades. The effects of long‐term changes in vortex shape and location are considered by gridding the measurements by equivalen...
متن کامل